A gun with a short time-to-crime—anything less than two or three years—is a strong indication that the buyer intended to divert the weapon for criminal use.
Time-to-crime was one of the many tools that the Conflict Awareness Project (CAP) relied upon to build evidence against the key players behind South Africa’s escalating rhino poaching crisis. CAP’s three-year-long investigation found that a highly organised criminal network funneled high-calibre hunting rifles from Europe to Mozambique, then distributed them among rhino poachers operating across the border in the Kruger National Park. These rifles became a game-changer, enabling the rhino syndicates to churn out more horn than at any time in recent memory.
Using various types of records, CAP was able to piece together the movements of dozens of these high-calibre rifles and found that their time-to-crime was often mere months. That is a remarkably short period. For context, compare it to the average time-to-crime of a gun recovered in the United States, which in 2016 was nearly 10 years.
Using sales records and the case numbers associated with recovered poaching rifles, CAP was able to approximate the time-to-crime of nearly 20 of the rifles purchased and found that they were usually recovered by law enforcement within a year. CAP estimated that one of the rifles was actually recovered within weeks of its first retail sale. This is evidence of illegal distribution of rifles to poachers.
Law enforcement needs to shift its focus away from the low-level rhino poachers operating on the ground and aggressively go after the upper echelons of the syndicates. CAP’s analysis demonstrates how law enforcement can use time-to-crime and a follow-the-guns methodology to unmask the ‘higher-ups’ who are aiding and abetting these wildlife crimes on a historic scale. Using these invaluable tools will help law enforcement stamp out the slaughter. But they need to start using them. If they fail, then all of Africa’s rhinos will soon go extinct.